Head-to-Head Summary
Italy have never lost a senior international against Türkiye.
Across 13 recognized senior meetings, Italy have recorded nine wins and four draws. Türkiye are still searching for their first victory, while Italy lead 24-7 on aggregate goals.
The most recent meeting came in June 2024, when the teams drew 0-0 in a friendly in Bologna. Before that, Italy won 3-2 in Konya in March 2022 and 3-0 at Euro 2020.
The competitive record is even more favourable to Italy. There have been only six competitive meetings between the nations, with Italy winning five and the other ending goalless.
That history gives the Azzurri a clear psychological and statistical advantage, but most of those matches belong to very different football eras. Current squad quality and form are more useful when assessing Monday's game.
Previous Competitive Meetings
June 11, 2021 — Euro 2020: Türkiye 0-3 Italy
June 11, 2000 — Euro 2000: Türkiye 1-2 Italy
February 25, 1973 — World Cup Qualifying: Türkiye 0-1 Italy
January 13, 1973 — World Cup Qualifying: Italy 0-0 Türkiye
March 27, 1963 — European Championship Qualifying: Türkiye 0-1 Italy
December 2, 1962 — European Championship Qualifying: Italy 6-0 Türkiye
Türkiye have therefore scored only once in six competitive meetings with Italy.
The more relevant recent fixtures have been friendlies, and they suggest the gap has narrowed. Türkiye lost only 3-2 in 2022 before earning a 0-0 draw in Italy two years later.
Monday's match will be their first Nations League meeting.
Türkiye Current Form
Türkiye's last five completed internationals produced three wins and two defeats.
June 26 — Türkiye 3-2 United States
June 20 — Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay
June 14 — Australia 2-0 Türkiye
June 6 — Venezuela 1-2 Türkiye
June 1 — Türkiye 4-0 North Macedonia
Türkiye scored nine goals and conceded six across that sequence.
The World Cup itself was disappointing. Defeats to Australia and Paraguay eliminated Montella's team before the final group game, although they finished on a positive note by beating tournament co-hosts the United States 3-2.
That result demonstrated the attacking potential in the squad. Arda Güler remains the most creative player, while Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Barış Alper Yılmaz, Can Uzun and Yunus Akgün give Montella several different options in the final third.
Türkiye's problem has been consistency against stronger opposition. They can move the ball quickly and create chances, but their defensive structure has occasionally opened too easily when matches become stretched.
The Nations League should provide an immediate test of whether Montella has addressed that issue.
Italy Current Form
Italy's last five completed internationals produced three wins, one draw and one defeat in regulation time.
June 7 — Greece 0-1 Italy
June 3 — Luxembourg 0-1 Italy
March 31 — Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Italy — Bosnia won on penalties
March 26 — Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland
November 16, 2025 — Italy 1-4 Norway
The Bosnia defeat on penalties was the result that ended Italy's World Cup qualification campaign. It confirmed that the Azzurri would miss a third consecutive World Cup.
Italy have since responded with consecutive 1-0 friendly victories over Luxembourg and Greece, but the larger story is managerial change.
Roberto Mancini has returned for a second spell as national-team coach and has begun a significant squad rebuild. His first Nations League group contains France, Belgium and Türkiye, giving him little time to introduce new ideas gradually.
Italy's defensive numbers remain encouraging. Since the 4-1 defeat to Norway, they have conceded only once across four matches in regulation time.
The attacking picture is less settled, particularly because Mancini has made several changes to the forward group.
Türkiye Team News and Injuries
Montella originally named a 29-player squad for the Nations League window before adding defender Mustafa Eskihellaç.
The selected group includes Arda Güler, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Barış Alper Yılmaz, Can Uzun, İrfan Can Kahveci and Yunus Akgün in attack. Orkun Kökçü, İsmail Yüksek and Salih Özcan are among the midfield options.
Orkun is currently a fitness concern. The TFF reported on September 23 that he missed training because of continuing pain in his toe.
Goalkeeper Muhammed Şengezer also sat out that session with a minor injury. Neither player had been officially ruled out of the Italy match at that stage.
Two notable names from Türkiye's World Cup squad do not appear in the announced Nations League group: Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız. The TFF's squad announcement did not provide an injury explanation for their absence, so they should be treated as unavailable selections rather than assumed injury cases.
That places even more creative responsibility on Arda.
Italy Team News and Injuries
Mancini initially called up 34 players, including nine receiving their first senior Italy selection.
The squad still contains an experienced core. Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi and Moise Kean are among the established options.
There have already been changes.
Federico Dimarco withdrew through injury and was replaced by Matteo Ruggeri. Bryan Cristante also dropped out, with Samuele Ricci called into the group.
Mateo Retegui was not included in Mancini's original squad despite his recent club form. His absence was a selection decision rather than a reported injury.
That creates uncertainty around Italy's preferred centre-forward. Kean, Gianluca Scamacca, Francesco Pio Esposito and several younger attackers are competing for places in a squad Mancini is clearly using to begin a new cycle.
Tactical Match Analysis
Türkiye's strongest route into the game should be through Arda Güler.
The Real Madrid midfielder can operate centrally or drift toward the right before moving inside onto his stronger left foot. His ability to receive between midfield and defence will force Italy to decide whether a midfielder follows him or a centre-back steps forward.
If Italy defend too aggressively, space can open behind them.
Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Barış Alper Yılmaz are capable of attacking those spaces quickly, while Can Uzun provides another technically gifted option between the lines.
Türkiye should also benefit from Ferdi Kadıoğlu's ability to advance from full-back. His overlapping runs can stretch Italy horizontally and give Arda more room inside.
The risk comes when possession is lost.
Italy have midfielders who can punish an unbalanced shape. Barella can carry the ball forward, Tonali can switch play early and Frattesi is particularly dangerous when arriving late around the penalty area.
Mancini may initially prioritise control rather than aggression. Italy are beginning a new coaching cycle, and their first two Nations League matches come only three days apart.
That could lead to a more cautious buildup with the full-backs choosing their moments to advance.
Türkiye are unlikely to sit deep for the entire game, especially with home support in Bursa. Montella's team should try to press Italy's first phase and force the visitors into rushed passes.
That approach can work, but the distances must remain compact. Italy have enough technical quality to play through an uncoordinated press and create immediate numerical advantages.
The midfield battle should therefore be decisive.
Key Players to Watch
Arda Güler
Arda has become the central figure in Türkiye's attack.
The TFF lists him with seven goals from 33 senior appearances, and his importance goes beyond scoring. His passing, close control and ability to create from the half-spaces give Türkiye a player capable of unlocking Italy without requiring long periods of possession.
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem brings more directness.
He enters the window with 15 international goals and gives Montella an attacker who can run beyond the defensive line rather than always coming toward the ball.
Nicolò Barella
Barella remains one of Italy's most complete midfielders.
His ability to press, recover possession and then immediately support attacks can be especially important against a Türkiye side that may commit several players forward at home.
Sandro Tonali
Tonali gives Italy control from deeper positions.
If Türkiye press aggressively, his composure and passing range can help Mancini's team bypass the first wave and attack before the home side recovers its shape.
What the Numbers Tell Us
Italy are unbeaten in 13 senior meetings with Türkiye.
The Azzurri have nine wins and four draws in the overall H2H.
Italy lead 24-7 on aggregate goals.
Türkiye have never beaten Italy in six competitive meetings.
Türkiye won three of their last five completed internationals.
Italy have conceded only once across their last four matches in regulation time.
Türkiye have home advantage, but Italy have avoided defeat on every previous trip in this matchup.
The historical evidence clearly favours Italy.
Current circumstances reduce the gap. Türkiye have a technically strong generation, a hostile home environment and enough attacking quality to punish Italy if Mancini's rebuilt side lacks cohesion.
Who Has the Statistical Edge?
Italy have the stronger statistical case because their H2H advantage is impossible to ignore; Nine wins from 13 meetings, no defeats and only seven goals conceded across the entire series show how consistently the Azzurri have controlled this matchup.
Their recent defensive form is another positive. Italy have kept three clean sheets across their last four completed matches.
Türkiye's advantages are home support and attacking creativity. Arda, Kerem and the other mobile forwards can test an Italy squad that is undergoing significant change under a returning coach.
A draw is therefore realistic.
Four previous meetings have already finished level, including the most recent encounter in 2024. Italy hold the historical edge, but Türkiye's home advantage and Italy's transition into a new cycle make this considerably closer than the overall H2H numbers suggest.
Conclusion
Türkiye vs Italy brings together a home team trying to establish itself consistently among Europe's stronger nations and an Italian side beginning another major rebuild.
The H2H could hardly be clearer. Italy have never lost this fixture and have won nine of the 13 senior meetings. They also possess the stronger historical defensive record against Türkiye.
Current circumstances create more uncertainty.
Türkiye have Arda Güler at the heart of an athletic and technically gifted attack, while Italy arrive with Roberto Mancini back in charge, nine uncapped players in the original squad and several personnel changes already made during the camp.
Monday's game should reveal how quickly that new Italian structure is developing.
Italy hold the statistical edge because of their extraordinary unbeaten H2H record and recent defensive numbers. Türkiye's home advantage and attacking quality make a draw credible, while an historic first Turkish victory would require Montella's side to produce greater defensive control than they showed during much of the World Cup.